The Internet and Authoritarian Regimes

Date of Award

2007

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Social Sciences

First Advisor

Alcock, Frank

Keywords

Internet, Authoritarian, Democratization, Censorship

Area of Concentration

Political Science

Abstract

This thesis addresses both the Internet's potential to affect authoritarian politics and the official responses to this new technology. Included is a theoretical discussion of the internet and politics, case studies of countries in the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia, and cross-country statistical tests. Statistical analyses employ an existing but hitherto unused 2004 dataset for 54 countries to probe two explanatory models of internet policy: official threat perception and international economic integration. Statistical tests largely fail to achieve overall significance, but case studies suggest that, particularly for the Persian Gulf "liberalizing autocracies," internet policy can indeed be explained by official threat perception (as inferred from objective conditions such as citizen satisfaction, political stability, and the threat of terrorism). The more diverse states of Southeast Asia prove that internet policy can also be more complicated, requiring more nuanced understandings of threat perception, political culture, constitutional constraints, and unique, case-specific dynamics. Reflecting on the original questions about the Internet's transformative potential, the study concludes that, due to the effectiveness and prevalence of restrictive policy precisely where change is needed most, the internet's most dramatic, revolutionary effects have likely been diffused. However, even in the most restrictive cases the internet has apparently already had some immediate liberalizing effects related to a broadened public sphere and increased civil liberties. Such political opening is often managed as official strategy, intended to solidify rather than fundamentally reform authoritarian politics, yet it is impossible for anyone (including state policymakers) to confidently predict outcomes. Though far from a necessary effect, Net-related liberalization may facilitate more fundamental, democratizing structural change in the long term. At present, it is simply too difficult and premature to make such forecasts. The complex intersection between the Internet and politics warns against technologically deterministic attitudes and makes obvious the mutually constitutive nature of technology, politics, and society.

Rights

This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The New College of Florida, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.

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