Date of Award

5-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts (BA)

Department

Natural Sciences

First Advisor

Skripnikov, Andrey

Area of Concentration

Data Science

Abstract

This thesis examines migration and demographic trends in Montana and compares them to trends observed across the United States. Particular attention is given to changes occurring between 2019 and 2021, a period influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and increased national attention toward Montana. Data from the American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) population series were used to analyze migration measures, demographic characteristics, and long-run population trends from 2009 to 2023, excluding 2020 due to disruptions in ACS data collection. Statistical analysis included margin-of-error aware hypothesis testing, linear regression, long-run slope comparisons, and dynamic regression models with autoregressive error structures. An interactive Shiny dashboard was developed to visualize demographic and migration patterns across Montana, selected Montana counties, and the United States. The results indicate that many demographic and migration trends in Montana generally followed broader national patterns, although some differences were observed in educational attainment, median household income, and interstate migration trends. Long-run analyses showed that Montana experienced slightly stronger growth in certain migration measures, while regression and dynamic regression models found limited evidence that demographic variables strongly explained migration behavior over time. These findings suggest that although Montana experienced noticeable demographic and migration changes during the study period, many of these trends reflected broader national patterns rather than entirely unique population shifts.

https://github.com/cheywadd13/Montana-Thesis-Dashboard.git

Rights

The author has granted New College of Florida the nonexclusive right to archive, make accessible, and distribute for educational purposes this work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. The copyright of this work remains with the author.

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