Ahmet Cemek

Date of Award

2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Natural Sciences

First Advisor

Gillman, David

Second Advisor

Skripnikov, Andrey

Area of Concentration

Computer Science and Statistics

Abstract

Soccer match statistics can be deceptive due to their tendency to oversimplify complex game dynamics. This simplistic aggregation often obscures critical contextual nuances when assessing performance potentially resulting in misleading interpretations. During the 2022 FIFA World Cup, a notable instance occurred in the France- England Quarterfinal game. Although France won, a closer examination of the game statistics might suggest that England was the better team: 16 to 8 shot attempts, 8 to 5 shots on target, 5 corners to France’s 2, resulting in a 1-2 loss. However, France maintained the lead for over 50 minutes and adopted a defensive stance for much of that time, which allowed England to amass impressive statistics. Interestingly, whenever the game was tied, France actually outperformed England in shots and corners, demonstrating a deliberate strategy of ceding control to England whenever France was ahead on the scoreboard. This paper’s inquiry revolves around the impact of scoring a goal on the offensive productivity of both the scoring and conceding teams across the top five leagues. Specifically, we aim to investigate whether the team that concedes a goal is more inclined to take shots or generate other offensive events such as corners and free kicks to gain a more objective understanding of the game’s power dynamics. In pursuit of this, we are examining how the difference in scores influences offensive outputs while also factoring in the time spent leading to assess soccer team performance.

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