CAUSES & PREDICTIONS OF PUBLIC OPINION SHIFTS ON ABORTION: A REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Date of Award

2023

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Social Sciences

First Advisor

Reilly, Jack

Area of Concentration

Political Science

Abstract

Although abortion is one of the most extensively studied and hotly debated topics today, there are significant gaps in public opinion literature as it relates to the effect of intersectional impacts on abortion attitudes. It has been less than a year since the overturning of Roe v. Wade with the decision of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in June 2022, and as such, the examination of historical and current trends in American public opinion is critical to understanding the future of abortion policy. In this thesis, I explore the intersectional impacts of religious, demographic, and attitudinal positions as they apply to public opinion on abortion. I do this through a chronologically conducted literature review that incorporates a review of classic literature on public opinion, an analysis of abortion history as well as current abortion politics, and an overview of the significance of the related variables I am choosing to examine. I then explore fifty years of data on religious, demographic, and attitudinal variables sourced from the General Social Survey through regression analysis in R to explore their connections and relative impact on abortion attitudes. Through my analysis, I find the most significant relationship to abortion attitudes are religious identification as Jewish, none, or other; identifying as divorced or separated; identifying as liberal; and supporting capital punishment.

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