Austin Mason

Date of Award

2021

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Social Sciences

Second Department

Humanities

First Advisor

Fidalgo, Amanda

Area of Concentration

Political Science

Abstract

100,000 gang members are scattered across Central America, Mexico, and the US. Las Maras, a transnational gang, could present the single greatest threat to regional security in Central America since the civil wars1. In 2020 an estimated total of 2,574 people were victims of homicides related to gangs and the murder rate was up at 15.3 per 100,000 in Guatemala2. Very little has been written about how gang violence affects democracy. This thesis fills this gap by examining the relationship between gang violence and democratic legitimacy in Guatemala. I argue that gang violence has a negative impact democratic legitimacy because crime victims are less supportive of democracy, gang violence reduces trust in the police, and the media over exaggerates feelings of insecurity. To test these mechanisms I implement a mixed-method research design combining both qualitative and quantitative data. Through my interviews with ex-gang members, civil society organizations, and survey data analysis using data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), I find that higher levels of police trust are associated with more support for democracy via its effect on maintaining safety in the public sphere. Additionally, I also find that gangs can cause a breakdown in public social spaces and that the media amplifies these effects.My findings not only expand on past literature on gangs and democracy but also have implications for the politics of organized crime in new or fragile democracies.

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