Date of Award
2019
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelors
Department
Social Sciences
First Advisor
Reilly, Jack
Area of Concentration
Economics and Political Science
Abstract
This project examines county-level economic conditions to explain the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. The major investigation is understanding the effects of local unemployment across counties on the support for Donald Trump. Three models are explored with the first investigating the inclusion of the percentage of vote support for Romney in the 2012 Presidential Election. The second model includes an interaction term of the change in the unemployment rate between 2015 to 2016 on the unemployment rate of 2015. The third model adds an interaction of the poverty rate and the percentage of the African American individuals within a county. The findings for all of these models show that the percentage minorities within a county and the percentage of educational attainment are the strongest explanatory variables in a decrease in support for Donald Trump. Economic indicators, such as unemployment also play a smaller, but a key role in explaining which counties supported Donald Trump or another candidate.
Recommended Citation
Norton, Amanda, "Economic Voting Analysis of the 2016 Presidential Election: A County-Level Analysis" (2019). Theses & ETDs. 5765.
https://digitalcommons.ncf.edu/theses_etds/5765