Date of Award

2019

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Social Sciences

First Advisor

Fitzgerald, Keith

Area of Concentration

Political Science

Abstract

In this thesis I set out to create a model that can predict which candidates have the highest chance of winning the 2020 Democratic nomination for President. I examine the literature in the field to find five variables for my model: fundraising, earned media, primary poll results, viability poll results, and candidate experience. I then collect data for these variables on all major declared 2020 candidates and weigh the variables against each other. I tally up the total results for this data in three separate dates, February 8th, March 1st, and April 1st, with April 1st being the final results for my model. I examine who the model views as the favorites at each of these intervals. The final test concludes that there is a distinct group of five candidates who have a significantly higher chance of success than their opponents. These five candidates led at all three of the dates that I looked at, though their positions relative to each other changed from test to test. The final results indicated that Joe Biden is the favorite to win the nomination, followed by Beto O’Rourke in second, Bernie Sanders in third, Elizabeth Warren in fourth, and Kamala Harris in fifth. I conclude by examining the possible reasons for these candidates success and examine the improvements that could be made to my model.

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