Date of Award

2012

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Natural Sciences

First Advisor

Yildirim, Necmettin

Keywords

Mathematical Modeling, Pink Salmon, Population Dynamics

Area of Concentration

Applied Mathematics

Abstract

Pacific pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) are small anadromous fish with a brief life cycle. At age two they reach sexual maturity and return to their natal streams to spawn and then die. As many communities depend on the large volume of pink salmon returning to Prince William Sound, Alaska, it is important to develop preseason forecasts to estimate the number of salmon returning to spawn. In this thesis we develop a number of deterministic differential equation models to describe the pink salmon life cycle and to predict the size of the adult population returning each year. The development of the models is sequential. Each new model adds a degree of complexity and improves the accuracy, either in capturing real data or in representation of the biological system. The effects of the spring zooplankton bloom and the prey-switching hypothesis on mortality of juvenile pink salmon have been well documented. Therefore, we incorporate these factors into our forecasting models, significantly improving their predictive capabilities.

Download

Share

COinS