Date of Award
2010
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelors
Department
Social Sciences
First Advisor
Khemraj, Tarron
Keywords
Oil Shocks, GARCH, VAR
Area of Concentration
Economics
Abstract
This thesis sets out to examine the impact of oil shocks and oil volatility on the US business cycle. Through the use of both a GARCH (1,1) combined with an AR (2) model and a VAR model. The results from these models indicate that oil shocks cause a small, but statistically significant impact on GDP. Oil shocks can adversely affect U.S. economic growth. Additionally, the VAR model also showed oil shocks causing a slight increase in both the unemployment level and the consumer price index. While the models demonstrate the effects oil shocks can have on the economy, they are perhaps too small to have a sizeable impact on the US business cycle.
Recommended Citation
Jaliman, David, "The Effects of Oil Shocks on the US Economy" (2010). Theses & ETDs. 4281.
https://digitalcommons.ncf.edu/theses_etds/4281