Civil Conflict Outcomes and Recurrence

Date of Award

2008

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors

Department

Social Sciences

First Advisor

Hicks, Barbara

Keywords

Civil War, Conflict Resolution, Conflict Recurrence

Area of Concentration

Political Science

Abstract

This thesis considers possible causes for the recurrence of civil conflicts in the period 1945 to 2006. Building on a review of literature regarding the causes and resolution of conflict, the study hypothesizes a connection between the type of outcome of a conflict and recurrence. Specifically, conflicts ending in military victories and political settlements are compared, and the connection between outcome type and recurrence is studied through a brief analysis of empirical data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and case studies of civil conflicts in Greece, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Nigeria, Iran, and Moldova. The study finds some evidence to suggest that military victories have historically been less likely to be followed by a recurrence of conflict. However, neither cross-national results nor analysis of cases provide any definitive link between outcome and recurrence. Instead, a number of other factors including international influence, geography, and disparity of forces seem to affect conflict recurrence as much or more than the type of outcome from the previous instance of conflict.

Rights

This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The New College of Florida, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.

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