Rebels without Borders The Effect of Bilateral Trade on the Existence of Transnational Bases
Date of Award
2008
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelors
Department
Social Sciences
First Advisor
Hicks, Barbara
Keywords
Rebels, Civil Conflict, Transnational Actors, Interdependence
Area of Concentration
Political Science
Abstract
The transnational dimensions of civil conflict have long been overlooked. Transnational rebel groups are one of the most recent transnational factors to be added to the civil conflict literature and have been shown to increase both the likelihood and duration of civil conflict. Transnational rebel groups are defined as rebel organizations with at least one established base in a foreign country. This thesis examines factors leading to the existence of transnational rebel bases within dyads of neighboring states and specifically the relation of these bases to the level of dyadic trade. My hypothesis is that higher levels of bilateral trade correspond to increased incentives to maintain stability within trading partners and thus increased incentives to prevent transnational bases from forming. To test this hypothesis, a logit regression analysis was performed using dyads consisting of states in civil conflict and the states bordering them. The analysis reveals that there is a separation point for bilateral trade above which all dyads were free of transnational bases. Below this point, there is a significant positive correlation between trade and rebel bases, implying that increased trade actually increases the likelihood of a transnational rebel base existing in the dyad. These findings suggest that traditional interdependence models for peace may be inappropriate for explaining the transnational dimensions of civil conflict. The results imply that interconnectivity may have some detrimental effects on peace and regional stability as transnational connections are used by rebellious groups in ways that are detrimental to the interests of one or both states.
Recommended Citation
Duerr, Isaac, "Rebels without Borders The Effect of Bilateral Trade on the Existence of Transnational Bases" (2008). Theses & ETDs. 3930.
https://digitalcommons.ncf.edu/theses_etds/3930
Rights
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