Date of Award

5-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts (BA)

Department

Social Sciences

First Advisor

Yu, Sherry

Area of Concentration

Economics

Abstract

This thesis examines the Tampa Bay and Sarasota housing market through the lens of D.R. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder, to understand how structural constraints, competitive dynamics, and economic forces shape industry outcomes. Between 2020 and 2025, the Tampa MSA absorbed more than 250,000 net domestic migrants while single-family permits increased only 32%, creating an imbalance between surging demand and constrained supply that has driven home prices to record levels (U.S. Census Bureau; Tampa Bay Economic Development Council). The analysis proceeds in two parts. Part I provides a comprehensive industry analysis, defining market boundaries, mapping the value chain, evaluating market structure, analyzing competitive dynamics through Porter's Five Forces, assessing D.R. Horton's strategic position via SWOT analysis, and examining the unique vulnerabilities of the Florida market including climate risk, the insurance crisis, and regulatory pressures. The section concludes with short-term and long-term outlooks for the region.

Part II applies five economic frameworks, structural supply inelasticity, interest rate transmission, oligopoly and Structure-Conduct-Performance, monopsony power in labor markets, and negative externalities, to explain the dynamics documented in Part I. Each theory is grounded in regional data and connected to D.R. Horton's specific strategies. The findings reveal that D.R. Horton's success is not accidental but a logical structural outcome. The firm's scale and integrated model are perfectly adapted to thrive in the high-friction Florida market, allowing it to manage supply-side constraints and absorb demand-side shocks more effectively than any competitor. The very forces that create barriers for others, their regulatory complexity, labor shortages, interest rate volatility, create a protective moat for D.R. Horton, reinforcing its market dominance in the Tampa Bay region.

Rights

The author has granted New College of Florida the nonexclusive right to archive, make accessible, and distribute for educational purposes this work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. The copyright of this work remains with the author.

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